The Impact of Automation and AI

One aspect of my job is to research emerging issues for my campus and make recommendations for how we should be preparing for them.  This post evolved from a policy and practice brief I recently wrote for my institution on the role of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy and the subsequent challenges for how we prepare students and operate as an organization. 

While campus traditions and cultures vary, most of us have experienced—and currently work in—an educational system that prepares workers for an Industrial Revolution-based economy.  Our modern economy, however, is changing in ways that will likely affect both the way we prepare students and our own workplaces; one of the drivers of that change is automation and AI. 

Most people are familiar with the impact of automation on factory and blue-collar jobs that began to speed up in the 1970s.  What many don’t appreciate is that increasing numbers of white-collar professions, such as radiology, accounting, stock trading, paralegal work, and even some aspects of journalism, have already been significantly influenced by machines that can do the work as effectively as humans.[i]  Yes, some of the news stories you are currently reading are written by nonhumans.  A 2013 Oxford University study predicted that nearly half of all jobs will be in danger of automation in the next two decades,[ii] and a 2015 McKinsey report predicted that 45% of all work can be automated by technology that’s currently available.[iii]A survey found that most researchers believe that AI systems will probably (i.e., more than 50% likelihood) achieve the ability to work at the same level as humans beginning around 2040.[iv]  Even more moderate predictions see a large impact on the workplace, with 9% of the workforce being displaced.[v]

Skeptics say that the world economy has previously experienced several major technological disruptions—such as the power loom that displaced weavers and the car that eliminated most of the relevant products and services for horse-drawn carriages—and each time the economy recovered as people reskilled. Several experts say, however, that the disruption caused by AI is different because it is exponential in its ability to change and adjust.[vi]

Even if the more dire predictions don’t come to pass, it’s certain that AI and automation will impact our lives as workers, as well as those of our graduates. While it’s unlikely that instruction and service units will be completely automated, technology is currently in use that automates important functions like grading, tutoring, and answering basic inquiries from students. 

Because so much is unknown about the impact of AI on education, there are more questions than answers at this point, but it’s important, nevertheless, that campuses begin to engage these coming changes and, as part of that process, give thoughtful consideration to what they mean for our own campuses as workplaces.  Has your institution begun thinking about these issues?  Has your institution begun using AI to perform functions that were previously done by humans, such as chatbots to answer basic student questions? In an era of scarce budget resources, what stance, if any, does your campus take on preserving the jobs of human workers versus using technology that can perform some or all of their functions?What policy and ethical implications do you foresee, as AI becomes more integrated into the work of education?